It is too early to determine where the largest surge impacts will be felt, as this is sensitive to landfall location and local coastal geography and orientation. Slow forward motion prolongs the amount of the time that strong winds are blowing over water, and allows storm surge to build to higher levels, especially along the coast and eventually inland. Recent forecast models and observations indicate that Hurricane Dorian will continue to intensify, while also experiencing a reduction in forward motion. Status: category-2, major hurricane (category-3 or higher) strength expected later today.Extent of hurricane force winds from center: 25 miles.
Location: 480 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.Source: NHCĬategory 2 Hurricane Dorian Status – 11AM EDT (NHC) NHC Advisory 24 Indicating the earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds. NHC Advisory 24A Indicating the addition of a Hurricane Watch for the Bahamas. The onset of tropical storm force winds in Florida is expected by early Sunday, with a forecast landfall time of early Tuesday morning. The NHC best intensity forecast calls for category-4 landfall on the south central Florida coast late this weekend, with the cone of uncertainty encompassing all of the Florida coastline and reaching into southern Georgia. The NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch for northern portions of the Bahamas. Dorian is moving northwest at 12 mph, located 255 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Recent Hurricane Hunter flights measured category-2 winds of 110 mph, and an expansion of the extent of hurricane force winds. These aspects of the forecast, along with track and intensity considerations are discussed below.ĭorian has begun a slow westward turn overnight, in a predicted shift toward the Bahamas and Florida. A developing concern was the slowing down of the system, which has implications for the magnitude of storm surge and rainfall.
The expectation was that large portions of the Bahamas and Florida will experience prolonged periods of hazardous weather conditions related to Hurricane Dorian, which is forecast to be category-4 as it approaches land. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast remained largely unchanged. This story was reported from Los Angeles.Hurricane Dorian continued to become better organized as it moved over deep ocean heat content, and then began a slow predicted shift to the left toward Florida. The Associated Press contributed to this report. Mar-a-Lago was built in 1927, and Trump purchased it in 1985, the report said. Trump previously claimed his private club sustained $17 million in damage during the 2005 hurricane season, but an Associated Press investigation found little evidence the resort actually took a hit. Reached by phone, a representative for Mar-a-Lago said the resort is still determining whether to evacuate employees, as there are currently no guests during the off-season.ĭuring Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Mar-a-Lago, along with the rest of Palm Beach island, was ordered to evacuate, the Washington Post reported. The Trump Organization and the White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the paper. Secret Service declined to respond to the Tampa Bay Times’ questions about security measures the resort would take. That means following a track that points generally toward Palm Beach County and Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. Stacy Stewart, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, sees the high pressure system winning, with an assist from Dorian itself. When it clashes with the Bermuda high, there's a chance it will nibble away at the western edges, allowing a weakening in that wall and pulling Dorian to the northwest toward Cape Canaveral or Jacksonville, with a small chance of the storm heading north of Florida, said Weather Underground Meteorology Director Jeff Masters, who used to fly into hurricanes for forecasts. Meanwhile, a low pressure system in the Midwest is chugging eastward.
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